“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” – Alan Kay
Rather than another blog post that predicts flying cars or the end of the world in 2020, I’ve put together a few thoughts on what’s to come in the next 10 years.
Simple observations on trends, wishful thinking’s, and in many case, the logical next step on what’s to come.
– Before we get to “Cloud Computing”, we will see the rise or “consumerization” of the Data Center: i.e. I will be able to transfer MY 1TB plus of RAW photography and 200GB of audio (which most consumer could have in time) with ease to the Cloud. (Note: Think S3 “for the rest of us”)
– The Desktop GUI Files and Folders metaphor will have to evolve. Files and folders work great when you have hundreds or even thousands of files, but the metaphor becomes pretty pointless when you are tasked to manage millions of digital records. This is a big challenge we have to solve in the next decade.
– Call it Web 3.0 if you like. With so many standalone Web Services out there, it’s still pretty hard for non-tech people to build meaningful digital content (let alone business) on the Web. In the coming decade, we should be able to figure out a way to tide all these standalone services together into something much more meaningful. (Note: Think today’s 10 person Web 2.0 startup can be built by 1 person in the next decade simply buy gluing together existing services on the Web)
On Business and Economy
– The rise of micro / digital transaction from the Digital World into the Real World. In the next decade, it should get much easier to paying someone for goods and services. Think of it as P2P economy. i.e. I can pay the kid down the street to mow the lawn via digital credit. Why this is important you ask? The less friction it is to any form of transaction, the better it is for the commerce right?
– Another financial bubble in the next decade will be driven by either Clean Tech or Biotech. We had the boom and bust in tech, real estate, and finance sectors in the last 20 years. The new cycle is bound to happen in those two industries next – with the requirement of some form of technical break though takes place.
On Media and Entertainment
– Traditional live TV will completed moving to the Web. After all, you living room TV is just a monitor. (Note: Think Hulu for ALL TV content but with live broadcast)
– Design and Fashion will finally move away from the Neo-grunge into something much more Baroque like or other style that’s focus on individual craftsmanship. (Note: Think Etsy, and TAD Gear)